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Leadership Network takes regular
surveys on a variety of issues to help its clients
plan for the future.
In the late summer of 2003, we conducted our second
Economic Outlook Survey. We asked general questions
about the current financial situation of the churches
as well as questions about their outlook for the
future.
There are limitations to this data. The survey
was a voluntary survey and conducted with two
different groups of Leadership Network clients.
The first group was 100 representative large churches
in the US and Canada that we asked to complete
a salary survey and answer questions about their
finances. The second group responded to the survey
based on an article in our Explorer publication.
These churches were not qualified by size, but
in most instances, they had weekly weekend worship
attendance of over 1,000.
The data is not a scientific, randomized sample.
These were merely opinions expressed by the leader
completing the survey.
Since Leadership Network tends to work with churches
that are vital, healthy and innovative, the churches
surveyed tended to be more optimistic about the
future than "average" churches.
With these caveats, here is a summary of the survey
data.
The first question we asked on our survey was
not about economic conditions but rather about
attendance since January 1, 2003. Average weekly
worship attendance growth or decline often has
an impact on how the church leadership is feeling
about the finances of the church.
The survey respondents reported the following about
church attendance since January 1, 2003:
| Up more than 30% |
5% of respondents |
| Up between 21-30% |
0% of respondents |
| Up between 11-20% |
13% of respondents |
| Up between 1-10% |
48% of respondents |
| About the same |
20% of respondents |
| Down 1-10% |
5% of respondents |
| Down 11-20% |
2% of respondents |
| Down by more than 20% |
2% of respondents |
|
This same question was asked in our 2001 survey
which took place within 45 days of September 11,
2001. In that survey, attendance growth was much
higher in the categories above 20%. Looking at the
totals, about the same total of churches reported
declines as in this year's survey. In short, the
churches are growing this year but not at as strong
a rate as the 2001 survey. As you can tell on the
above question, two-thirds reported some growth
while only 9% reported declines.
We also asked a similar question about general offerings
given to the church over the same period.
Since January 1, 2003, general offerings were:
| Up more than 30% |
4% of respondents |
| Up between 21-30% |
2% of respondents |
| Up between 11-20% |
17% of respondents |
| Up between 1-10% |
31% of respondents |
| About the same |
23 % of respondents |
| Down 1-10% |
17% of respondents |
| Down 11-20% |
0% of respondents |
| Down more than 20% |
6% of respondents |
|
In summary, 77% reported offerings the same or higher
than the previous year; 23% reported declines.
For those that gave us the exact percentage of increase
or decrease, the average was an increase of 7.32%
for the current year. The median answer was 8%.
We asked the participants in the survey about their
expectations to meet their general church budget
this year. This question can be somewhat deceiving
as many churches address the formation and planning
of budgets in various ways. In some cases, the church
always wants to set a high budget and encourage
its attendees to stretch into the higher projects.
In other cases, leaders are more conservative and
set very realistic and beatable projections so that
it appears that financial health is better than
the budget.
In the survey, 75% reported that they will meet
their budget for this year. This figure is slightly
less than the 2001 survey. The other 25% reported
they would not meet their budget this year.
Expectations of church income for 2004 were as follows:
| Increase more than 20% |
9% of respondents |
| Increase 11-20% |
21% of respondents |
| Increase 1-10% |
60% of respondents |
| Remain the same |
9% of respondents |
| Decrease 1-10% |
0 |
| Decrease 11-20% |
0 |
| Decrease more than 20% |
0 |
|
While the figures are slightly different from our
2001 survey, it does reflect the general optimism
among survey respondents. Over 90% think that the
church's income will rise in the coming year.
In addition to general offerings, almost all of
the churches have designated and special offering
systems for attendees to make contributions. These
would include special funds for missions, capital
improvements or construction, land funds and denominational
appeals, as well as appeals to plant a new congregation
or new site for the church.
In the coming year, the churches reported planning
to have the following types of special giving opportunities
in 2004:
| A capital funds drive for new property
or building |
38% |
| A debt retirement funds drive |
18% |
| A gift to mission causes over 1 million |
5% |
| An appeal to plant multiple new congregations
|
22% |
| An appeal to launch a new worship
site of the existing congregation |
15% |
| A large appeal for a denominational
cause |
2% |
|
Remember first that these numbers are a little different
than the previous questions. It is very possible
that one particular church is planning several of
these emphases.
These numbers illustrate several trends among the
respondents. First, denominational appeals are the
least supported. Appeals for capital are obviously
planned. In another survey that Leadership Network
conducted with participants in a recent large learning
event, 78% of the participants indicated they were
planning major construction projects in the next
three years. Obviously, many will not raise money
next year or will use other sources of finance for
those buildings.
It is encouraging to see that both church planting
and multi-site options are being considered by a
relatively large number of congregations in the
coming year.
We also asked the participants to give their expectations
on next year's spending plans for specific areas
of the church. They can be summarized by the following
table:
|
|
Significant
decrease |
Lower
than average |
Slight
decrease |
About
the same |
Slight
increase |
Higher
than average |
Significant
increase |
|
Staff
Salaries
|
0% |
5% |
3% |
20%
|
63%
|
5%
|
3% |
| Missions
Giving |
2% |
0% |
3% |
31%
|
53%
|
12%
|
0% |
| Program-related
Spending All Types |
3% |
2% |
6% |
34%
|
49%
|
5%
|
0% |
| Facilities
Spending |
0% |
2% |
7% |
34%
|
33%
|
12%
|
12% |
| Staff
Continuing Education |
0% |
3% |
8% |
69%
|
9%
|
2%
|
0% |
| Information
Technology spending |
0% |
2% |
4% |
64%
|
24%
|
2% |
2% |
The participants were split on the leading answer
for each category. In the top three areas the leading
answer was "slight increase," while the bottom three's
leading answer was "about the same."
The survey asked about staffing plans for the coming
year among the churches. Only 10% of the churches
plan to add more than 15 staff members, 47% plan
to add between 1-4 new staff members and 33% expect
to make no change. The remaining 10% believe they
will reduce staff slightly over the next year.
Finally, in a question designed to gather free comments
about how the church is feeling about its outlook
for 2004, we read the comments carefully, and after
analysis, concluded that 80% of the comments could
be characterized as positive. The remaining comments
included 15% that were cautious and 5% that were
negative.
In my experience, when it comes to finances, the
outlook for the future tends to reflect a combination
of factors. Some factors are related to the mood
of the church's leadership, and some are slightly
influenced by the national mood related to the economy.
As of this writing, the consumer confidence levels
in the US are rising. This tends to be reflected
on many national surveys such as this one.
How do you use this data?
This data is but one reflection on the trends affecting
the church. Local data is much more relevant to
individual churches. The report does assist local
church leaders in understanding what other churches
are thinking about the future of the church in relation
to its economic conditions.
BACK
TO EXPLORER |
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